REVIEWING ASEAN-CHINA RELATIONS THROUGH BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

The Silk Road Economic Belt and 21^st Maritime Silk Road – also called One Belt One Road Initiative is China’s foreign and economic policies that have been initiated by President Xi Jinping. It aims to strengthen China’s domestic and foreign policies through a vast infrastructure program throughout China’s neighboring regions. On 2017, China host the Belt and Road Forum for international cooperation in Beijing. It lifted the Belt and Road project into a higher level of cooperation. One Belt, One Road Initiative explores seven key regional spheres covered by the Belt-Road Initiative: Africa, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Russia, South Asia and South-east Asia.

On the South-east Asia’s section, OBOR covers nine states : Indonesia, Thailand, The Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos. The nine economies states are home to nearly 640m people, generating US$ 2.5 trn in combined GDP.  

Why China choose South-east Asia as their main focus on ‘Belt and Road’ project? Belt and Road Initiative is both geo strategy and geo economic policy to assert China’s leadership in the world, especially in its region. It consider economic resources, political and social value (cultural exchanges) to maintain regional stability.

Furthermore, South-east Asia region with its potentials, is playing an important role in Asia. From the economic perspective, China has been ASEAN’s  largest trading partner, and since 2011 ASEAN has been China’s third largest trading partner. In addition, ASEAN’s countries are prominence developing countries with the rate of GDP growth achieve 5.5% in 2016. ASEAN also has their own trading market through ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) and several countries including China. In the end of 2015, ASEAN had announced the completion of the ASEAN Economic Community which covers large market with a population more than 600 million. The economic ties between China and ASEAN reach US $452,2 billion in 2016, and a total way investment of US $ 177.9 billion. Those are reasons why ASEAN is China’s potential partner for businesses and corporations.

Politically, ASEAN and China have the same interest on building strategic and massive infrastructure to ensure regional connectivity. It could be seen from the Masterplan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025 and One Belt One Road Initiative. Both projects have the same commonalities which is envisage regional connectivity with transport infrastructure. Similar to the Belt and Road project, Since 2010 ASEAN has a masterplan to increase public and private infrastructure investment in each ASEAN member states by establishing a rolling priority pipeline list of potential ASEAN infrastructure projects and sources of funds. By integrating the region, it will enhance the economic sector of each countries, people mobility, and cultural exchanges. But the question is how ASEAN should deal with Belt and Road Initiative?

IMPACT ON ASEAN – CHINA RELATIONS

ASEAN and China Relations had been worst since the high tension of South China Sea conflict in the 21^st century. China claimed the South China Sea as China’s territory based on the “nine dash line” in China’s historical map. Since the conflict is on the high tension between China and several claimant state, BRI project that commenced in 2013 is indicated as the “key” on China’s diplomacy in Southeast Asia to reduce tension and control Southeast Asia countries involvement in South China Sea.

Moreover, ASEAN and China’s relation has elevated to a higher level since both countries had agreed to create strategic partnership among countries. On 2017, ASEAN and China have agreed to enhance the cooperation on infrastructure through Joint Statement between ASEAN and China on Further Deepening the Cooperation on Infrastructure Connectivity. It aims for long-term cooperation and common prosperity of ASEAN and China on the basis of equality, mutual benefit and in accordance with domestic laws and regulations. It also one step closer to achieve BRI Project. Through this initiative, the relation between ASEAN – China will much stronger than before but ASEAN should aware with the future challenges, in particular the domination of China nowadays in international regime. 

PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES FOR ASEAN MEMBER STATES

Belt and Road initiative project will be given much opportunities and benefits for ASEAN member states. It will help ASEAN to improve connectivity in its region based on Masterplan 2025. Furthermore, Belt and Road Initiative will further integrate ASEAN’s community through strategic infrastructure and improving ASEAN’s policy. Also, it will develop regional economic zones and improving both human and natural resources.

Despite mutual benefit of the initiative, BRI projects also a challenge for ASEAN integration. First, when we talk about the Belt and Road Initiative, we also talk about the interconnected, infrastructure development and interdependent trade routes. It is not only one country’s initiative but also multinational cooperation. It need countries endeavor to build mega infrastructure project and ensure not only the economic but also stabilization of social and political in every country. Therefore, ASEAN should using the Masterplan of ASEAN Connectivity 2025 as a part of BRI negotiation with China in order to maintain the stability and sustainability in the region.

Second, The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AAIB) that also China’s initiative is the way to approach Asian developing countries by investing in sustainable infrastructure and other productive sectors. It is also might be China’s initiative to conduct itself in the international level and facilitate developing countries to build their domestic infrastructure towards BRI project and AIIB. Therefore, ASEAN must ensure each countries are ready to take both economic opportunities and risks by enhancing economic cooperation, such as strengthening ASEAN Free Trade Area, lead future economic cooperation such as Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) into a higher level of cooperation. It aims to counter ASEAN’s countries economic dependency to China.  ASEAN should be able to manage its economic integration and bring ASEAN as a major regional organization in the world.

Third, Regional integration will lead to the bias of country’s borders and threaten countries sovereignty. Bearing in mind, China still has control in South China Sea dispute and lack of commitment to solve it. Nevertheless, ASEAN must ensure to maintain the peace and security in the region by enhancing joint security cooperation in particular in the maritime area. It also to combat transnational organized crime by secure our border and maintain the stability in the region.

The future implementation of Belt and Road Initiative will much affected to economic, political and social stabilization in Southeast Asia. Therefore, the role of ASEAN is necessary to control the imbalance of global and regional challenges by strengthening cooperation among countries as one identity.